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A quote often attributed to Einstein states that “there are two infinite things in this world: the universe and human stupidity … and I’m not too sure about the universe” (or something like this).

I guess the latest development in Eastern Europe have definitely proved that Einstein’s comparison is not only appropriate but also maybe an understatement as to the gravity of the stupidity’s presence in our lives. Of course the real problems arise when said stupidity rises in power and begins to govern (aka “destroy”) the lives of many people.

Thing is that in politics it’s dangerous (if not impossible) to view a situation without taking into account decisions and effects that happened hundred of years ago and also try to view that current decisions being take will affect lives (and will be judged) for hundreds of years to come. Politics isn’t a game for amateurs, is again an understatement. Politics require imagination, vision, logic, understanding, control, emotion and empathy.

That being said, let’s take a look together at the situation that has developed in a sensitive region, the border between Georgia and Russia. What happened there?

During the night between 7 and 8th of August, contingents of the Georgian army moved into the separatist region of South Ossetia, bordering Russia, in an attempt to overthrow the separatist government and retake control of the region. During the day of 8th, the Georgian army was waging battle on the streets of the Ossetian capital, Tskhinvali. Later that night, the Russian army crossed the border into South Ossetia and during the next day (9th) engaged the Georgian army in South Ossetia while conducting aerial raids in both the separatist region as well as Georgia itself.

The facts seem pretty simple, but they’re not. To look further we need first some historical facts. In 1783, the kingdom of Georgia signed a treaty with the Russian Empire for protection, being effectively integrated a few years later (1801) after a brief Persian invasion that sacked Tbilisi (1795).  In later years Georgia gained brief independence under British protection taking advantage of the Russian Civil War, a time which ended with Russia’s army chasing away the liberal government and re-annexing Georgia. During the WWII, Georgians fought on the Red Army side (with the exception of a few thousand united as “The Georgian Legion” on Hitler’s side, hoping to restore the independence and make Georgia a partner of the Nazi government). During the 60’s, dissident voices calling for independence began to rise again, quickly supressed by the soviets with deportations, however Georgia became a state in 1991 when Eduard Shevardnadze (architect of the dismantling of the USSR) returned to his home country and took leadership.

Ossetia is a remnant of the ancient kingdom of Alania, with its inhabitants spreading over the vast territory that is now divided between Noth and South Ossetia (the North is also known as Ossetia-Alania). The South became part of the kingdom of Georgia, although the population shares the same roots with the North as well as much of the cultural identity. Since calls for independence started to grow, many have claimed Russia passports in order to gain protection. In 1991 and 1992, South Ossetia defeated the Georgian army and held a referanda for independence, the result of which was an independent government not recognized internationally. Without European or American support, South Ossetia grew ties with the other neighbour, Russia, which has in turn issued several statements about protecting the territorial integrity of the Independent Republic of South Ossetia. Following the independence of Kosovo supported by the United States, the separatist movement of Ossetia grew in strength and violence.

Russia is the ally of South Ossetia’s government, with whom has signed a cooperation treaty. In turn, Russian peacekeepers have been in South Ossetia since 1992 in order to deterr Georgia from trying to invade Ossetia. The status quo was maintained until this year.

The United States has been for some time a vocal supporter of independence movements and a traditional supporter of “the people’s choice” and right to self-determination. However its policies have always took strange turns when conflicts spawned close to its allies (Israel, Spain, United Kingdom - where the palestinians, the basque movement and the norther irish have been ignored). The incumbent president GW Bush appeared as a close ally of the Georgian president and a vocal supporter of Georgia’s chances to join the North Atlantic Treaty (NATO). However, Bush’s ambitions also look towards Iran and cutting Iran’s nuclear ambitions, a move longtime blocked by Russia.

Interesting mix, isn’t it? Throw into this the fact that the only supply of oil and natural gases for Europe outside of Russia control passes through Georgia and we see that the number of people with a hand into the conflic is much larger.

What to do, what to do? The United states point of view is that … there is no real point of view. Support independence and listen to the inhabitants of Ossetia? That angers Georgia and the US is sworn to uphold Georgia’s territorial integrity. Threaten Russia? Pointless, the Russians are already there, angering them not only casts away any hope of dealing with Iran in a proper manner but using too much force might lead ot greater conflict. Ask Georgia to back off? Impossible, that would shatter the credibility of the White House in front of its smaller partners. There’s no saving face for US, who has dissapointed in the past, by leaving the Hungarian students to fend off Soviet tanks in 1956 for a very similar reason: they needed USSR to do nothing about the Suez crisis. But it gets worse: US has supported Kosovo independence in spite of Russian objections, effectively violating the territorial integrity of Serbia in order to weaken Russia’s ally. The trade-off will be that the US will be forced to turn its back on Georgia, regardless. The danger here is that Bush isn’t a real politician, he’s more of a dilletant who’s only argument is the Armed Forces. He threatens first every time, but never offers a trade-off solution except following the US point of view, which undermines eventually any negotiation. Add to this the fact that US conducted many invasions across the globe unilaterally (without UN backing - Vietnam, Cambodia, Afghanistan, Iraq …) and the picture looks really really grim for US diplomacy (or lack thereof).

Russia isn’t USSR, that’s clear. Russia is now strong, both militarely and economically. Putin is a real politician, who knows what arms to twist and mostly when. Was invading Georgia premeditated? No doubt. Military scenarios and exercises were undertaken long ago I imagine. For years Russia has used economics and rethoric to counter US expansion across the globe, reason for which Russia needed to show some strength, to show that it is capable of acting for its interests when needed be. After years of warnings sent to Georgia, Russia had to act to show the US that the US does not hold a monopoly on unilateral military intervention.

Georgia … well … Georgia is a mistery. Its president gained power with a platform against corruption and for better of worse he pulled it off. He developed a relationship with the West that made him gain a lot of support and credibility. So what happened now? He was warned that any move to counter the independence of Abkhazia and Ossetia would lead to military intervention from Russia, he knew that. He had previously supported the US in Serbia. He supported the invasion and occupation of Iraq. So what made him move forward? Did he think Russia wouldn’t intervene due to his friendship with Bush? Was he really that naive? Personally I’m at a loss … the man either didn’t realize the consequences of his actions (proving the lacks understading of the political scene and he lacks vision) or … that he’s plain stupid. Either way he lost everything. He’s no credible partner for neither Europe nor Russia, he destroyed people’s lives in Ossetia by invading it and in Georgia due to the military invasion he knew would come. What can one say? Saaskashvili is a fool and fell into Putin’s trap, also allowing French president Sarkozy to take a mediating role (and try to shake-off the image of a drunk lunatic he’s been carefully building for himself).

This is what happens when a stupid man is allowed to lead.